Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
