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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.